3
Sliver Of Sunshine
5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 76
Monmouth Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 19/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 03/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 21/01/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 18/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |