6
Final Joke
3yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 69
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 16/04/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |