5
Ghostwriter
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 58
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 63% | -0.29 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |