Thunder Chuck
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 79
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 03/01/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |