1
Waitin'onasunnyday
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 71
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 28/09/2025 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 11% | -0.71 |
| 10/12/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |