5
I'mwishingonastar
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 80
Monmouth Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 02/04/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 25/05/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |