Paris Carver
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 97
Monmouth Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
69%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 16th | 10th | +5 |
| 2025-05-25 | Curragh | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 18/06/2025 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 32% | +0.32 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 03/07/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 11% | -0.49 |