8
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6yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 81
Monmouth Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 17/08/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |