8
Island Spirit
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 77
Monmouth Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-02-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-01-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2025-09-28 | Meadowlands | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/07/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 24/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 28/09/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/01/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |