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6

Matthew's Ticket

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 83

Monmouth Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Laurel Park 20/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f 12220/12C6C6 @ Laurel Park 16/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 78 · 5f110y 124 · below its mark16/01/2026 · OR 78 par16/01C6OR 78C6 @ Laurel Park 27/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 75 · 5f110y 124 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 75 par27/02C6OR 75C9 @ Laurel Park 17/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 11717/04C9C6 @ Laurel Park 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f110y 11928/06C6projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-28Laurel Park?1st2nd−1
2026-04-17Laurel Park?4th8th−3
2026-02-27Laurel Park?6th7th−1
2026-01-16Laurel Park?3rd4th−1
2025-12-20Laurel Park?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1216/0127/0217/0428/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength81%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20253rd15/261%67%+0.06
16/01/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
27/02/20266th8/158%17%-0.41
17/04/20264th6/168%57%-0.11
28/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24