4
Party Guest
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 83
Monmouth Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |