3
Perrotto
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 58
Monmouth Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Meadowlands | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength98%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 28/06/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/08/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 14/09/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 18/07/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |