9
St. Erling
4yo Colt · 8-13 · OR 85
Monmouth Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-10-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-08-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-07-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-07-04 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength98%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 04/07/2024 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 26/07/2024 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 25/08/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 13/10/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |