5
The Pauly Factor
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 72
Monmouth Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Meadowlands | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |