1
Darvesh
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 56
Monmouth Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Penn National | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-09-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2024-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-07-07 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength13%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2024 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 01/06/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 20/06/2024 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 07/07/2024 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 21/08/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/09/2024 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 28/09/2024 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 22/07/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |