7
Knox
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 84
Monmouth Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |