8
Red Hot Spark
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength28%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 30/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 26/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 15/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |