4
Tiergarten
8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 73
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 28/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 13/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 08/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |