2
Breezer
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |