4
Bustin Loose
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 89
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength76%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 89% | -0.03 |
| 08/12/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 18/12/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |