French Onion
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 82
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 23/03/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |