9
Caparbia
3yo Filly · 8-8
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-01-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2025-12-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-09-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 08/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 24/12/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 17/01/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |