11
Lucky And Pretty
3yo Filly · 8-8
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-12-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 01/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |