3
Pigeon Cay
6yo Mare · 8-12
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-10-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 43% | -0.53 |
| 25/08/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 03/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |