9
Addagirl Addie
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 68
Saratoga · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2026-01-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-01-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 22/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 03/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 28/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 24/04/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 11/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |