5

Battle Rifle

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 36

Saratoga · Race 11 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move2
Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Finger Lakes 04/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS4/11C6C6 @ Finger Lakes 12/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 38 · 6f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/11/2025 · OR 38 par12/11C6OR 38C6 @ Aqueduct 26/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 40 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/12/2025 · OR 40 par26/12C6OR 40C6 @ Aqueduct 16/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 33 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 33 par16/01C6OR 33C9 @ Saratoga 19/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 31 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 31 par19/07C9OR 31projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Saratoga?9th9th0
2026-01-16Aqueduct?7th4th+3
2025-12-26Aqueduct?6th3rd+3
2025-11-12Finger Lakes?7th4th+3
2025-11-04Finger Lakes?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1112/1126/1216/0119/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength43%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/11/20256th11/271%38%-0.34
12/11/20257th12/137%14%-0.23
26/12/20256th50/10%29%+0.29
16/01/20267th40/10%0%0.00
19/07/20269th50/10%27%+0.27