3
Bouquetry
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 60
Saratoga · Race 11 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
66%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength73%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-03 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 28/08/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 03/10/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |