10
Starship Lizzy
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 57
Saratoga · Race 11 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |