4
Bellacose
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 73
Saratoga · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength54%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2024-11-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2024-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 4th | +5 |
| 2024-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 31/08/2024 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 17/11/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 06/06/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 15/08/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |