6
Grace And Grit
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 83
Saratoga · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 71% | -0.22 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |