5
Missing Fortune
7yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 81
Saratoga · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2024-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-07-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-01-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-01-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength31%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2023 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 08/11/2023 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 08/12/2023 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 04/01/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 19/01/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 02/07/2024 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 02/08/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 01/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |