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Nina Kay

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 81

Saratoga · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Aqueduct 17/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/11/2024 · OR 83 par17/11C5OR 83C6 @ Aqueduct 17/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 87 · 6f110y Fas 122 · below its mark17/01/2025 · OR 87 parC6 @ Aqueduct 01/02/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 89 · 1m Fas 122 · below its mark01/02/2025 · OR 89 par1/02C6OR 89C5 @ Saratoga 24/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2025 · OR 82 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 26/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 84 · 7f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/10/2025 · OR 84 par26/10C5OR 84C5 @ Aqueduct 10/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 83 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 83 parC6 @ Aqueduct 21/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 6f 123 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 83 par21/02C6OR 83C6 @ Aqueduct 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 6f 126 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 82 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 24/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 80 · 6f 126 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 80 par24/05C6OR 80projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-24Belmont At The Big A?2nd2nd0
2026-04-12Aqueduct?3rd3rd0
2026-02-21Aqueduct?5th5th0
2026-01-10Aqueduct?1st0th+1
2025-10-26Belmont At The Big A?2nd1st+1
2025-07-24Saratoga?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1124/0721/0224/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/11/20242nd25/10%86%+0.86
17/01/20252nd6/492%86%-0.06
01/02/20254th10/1195%25%-0.70
24/07/20252nd10/382%83%+0.01
26/10/20252nd13/891%86%-0.06
10/01/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
21/02/20265th7/282%33%-0.48
12/04/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12
24/05/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07