1
Burninhunkoflove
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 89
Saratoga · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 11/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |