3
Conniving
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 86
Saratoga · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | −1 | ||
| 2025-06-08 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 11/01/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 07/02/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 21/03/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |