2
Norwich
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 91
Saratoga · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/04/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 18/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 16/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |