5
Shoot The Nickel
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 89
Saratoga · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 10/12/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 90% | +0.03 |