4
Stewie
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 89
Saratoga · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength67%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 8/11 | 96% | 33% | -0.63 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |