7
Willie Bird
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 98
Saratoga · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2024 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 04/01/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 27% | -0.49 |
| 24/01/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |