5
Dividend Recap
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 85
Saratoga · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
87%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2023-11-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2023 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 02/11/2023 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 25/07/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 73% | -0.22 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |