IvyArcIvyArc
3

Lady Orient

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 86

Saratoga · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 1f

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fair Grounds 20/01/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 87 · 5f110y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/01/2025 · OR 87 par20/01C6OR 87C5 @ Fair Grounds 08/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 86 · 1m110y Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/03/2025 · OR 86 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 06/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 87 · 1m Slo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/06/2025 · OR 87 par6/06C6OR 87C8 @ Saratoga 11/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 86 · 7f 120 · below its mark11/07/2025 · OR 86 parC8 @ Saratoga 31/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 87 · 6f110y Slo 120 · below its mark31/07/2025 · OR 87 par31/07C8OR 87C8 @ Fair Grounds 05/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 90 · 1m70y 122 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Fair Grounds 09/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 7f110y Gd 122 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 82 par9/03C8OR 82C8 @ Churchill Downs 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 1m 124 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 89 par17/05C8OR 89projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-17Churchill Downs?3rd4th−1
2026-04-25Churchill Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-03-09Fair Grounds?1st2nd−1
2026-02-05Fair Grounds?3rd4th−1
2025-07-31Saratoga?2nd3rd−1
2025-07-11Saratoga?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0111/079/0317/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/01/20254th3/184%57%-0.27
08/03/20255th10/147%20%-0.27
06/06/20253rd9/276%50%-0.26
11/07/20255th7/282%20%-0.62
31/07/20252nd13/891%80%-0.11
05/02/20263rd11/486%67%-0.19
09/03/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
25/04/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
17/05/20263rd14/126%71%+0.45