9
Lotus Petal
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 84
Saratoga · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 28/08/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 06/11/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 22% | -0.57 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |