2
On A Summer Day
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 72
Saratoga · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-01-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 09/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 18/01/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |