1
River Tay
6yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 84
Saratoga · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Meadowlands | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Meadowlands | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 15/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 31/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |