Blue Pill
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 80
Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-11-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 05/10/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 13/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/07/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |