Coach Case

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 93

Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

87%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength42%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.6

Today:

Class gap: +0.9

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-16	Saratoga	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2025-11-07	Aqueduct	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2025-10-11	Belmont At The Big A	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2025-08-21	Saratoga	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2025-07-20	Saratoga	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2025-06-04	Saratoga	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 11

▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price

Trend▲

Strength55%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/04/2025	2nd	5/4	93%	91%	-0.03
04/06/2025	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14
20/07/2025	5th	10/3	82%	33%	-0.49
21/08/2025	6th	9/2	76%	38%	-0.39
11/10/2025	3rd	15/2	61%	75%	+0.14
07/11/2025	5th	5/2	87%	56%	-0.31
16/07/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	89%	+0.42