Corvus

4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 72

Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-18	Saratoga	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-14	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-05-10	Belmont At The Big A	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-04-17	Aqueduct	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-03-21	Aqueduct	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-02-04	Aqueduct	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 11

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▬

Strength47%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 11.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/11/2025	5th	25/1	0%	20%	+0.20
28/12/2025	8th	7/1	63%	22%	-0.41
17/01/2026	2nd	14/1	26%	75%	+0.49
04/02/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	83%	+0.46
21/03/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	80%	+0.04
17/04/2026	4th	9/1	53%	57%	+0.05
10/05/2026	7th	20/1	0%	14%	+0.14
14/06/2026	6th	10/1	47%	29%	-0.19
18/07/2026	5th	10/1	47%	50%	+0.03