7
Final Denile
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 93
Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength20%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/04/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 19/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 17/07/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 55% | -0.19 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |