8
Mo Kreesa
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 87
Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-02-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 14/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 15/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 12/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |