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5

Outtawaterbury

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 81

Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 12/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2025 · OR 93 par12/09C5OR 93C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 22/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 92 · 1m Gd 124 · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 92 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 12/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 90 · 1m110y Gd 121 · below its mark12/12/2025 · OR 90 par12/12C8OR 90C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 09/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 91 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 91 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 30/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 81 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 81 par30/01C8OR 81C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 13/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m110y Fm 119 · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 04/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 81 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark04/03/2026 · OR 81 par4/03C8OR 81C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 04/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 86 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 86 parC7 @ Saratoga 12/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 80 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 80 par12/07C7OR 80projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Saratoga?8th8th0
2026-04-04Tampa Bay Downs?7th8th−1
2026-03-04Tampa Bay Downs?3rd4th−1
2026-02-13Tampa Bay Downs?10th11th−1
2026-01-30Tampa Bay Downs?7th8th−1
2026-01-09Tampa Bay Downs?10th11th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/099/014/0312/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20255th16/116%50%+0.34
22/10/202510th12/137%0%-0.37
12/12/20253rd12/137%78%+0.41
09/01/202610th10/147%0%-0.47
30/01/20267th9/153%33%-0.19
13/02/202610th14/126%18%-0.08
04/03/20263rd33/10%78%+0.78
04/04/20267th25/10%25%+0.25
12/07/20268th50/10%36%+0.36