10
Salt Spartan
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 82
Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-11-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 16/07/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 28/07/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/11/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |